Bayern Munich gave Arsenal a reality check – Arsenal does
not know how to play well unless it’s a couple of goals down. That has been the
case in losing efforts against Chelsea, Munich, draws against Liverpool and
Fulham; all saw strong second half “Arsenal Football” (or so players would like
to call it). In fact barring the few games when Arsenal have toyed with their
opponents for 4 5 or 6 goals in a match, most have been either dogged saves or
tough single goal wins.
Though their home record this season has been as flattering as
Sally Fields playing Mrs. Lincoln, teams like Aston Villa 'should' be easy to handle.
However, tough 1-0’s against the likes of Swansea and more recently Stoke flash a warning sign not to be ignored. Another problem Arsenal is facing is its line of defense. Let us
keep aside the predictable leakage problem in the back four; this game sees Arsenal
having trouble in fielding a specialist in each position. With first choice Sagna injured, Jenkinsen will see a place in the starting line-up. We're still hoping to see the Jenkinsen we saw at the beginning of the season.
Villa has had its own set of problems this year. Inconsistent scoring record leading to a relatively poor Away record, especially against the
top six teams, points in such games have been hard to come by. Barring a 3-1
away aberration against Liverpool, incidentally their last away victory in the PL,
the score-lines have been quite damning for Villa. Though they can take some
heart from their last away game against Everton, a 3-3 draw, I don’t see
Villa making the same dents in the Arsenal defense. Villa have not won
consecutive games in the Premier League this season; a trend that, if
continued, means they can hope at most for a draw (they last won against Wet Ham on
Feb 10th). Villa will be lifted with a healthy Charles
N’Zogbia, as there were further fears that he would be injured.
One stat that I found coincidental in the way the numbers
lined up was the propensity for the two teams to win/lose and score/concede in
their respective home/away games. Arsenal in their 13 home games has 7 wins, 3
draws 3 losses. Villa in theirs 13 Away, have 2 wins and frankly if they can
pull of a draw, it will be as good as a win. So, both teams stack up nicely in their respective records - 3 losses in 13 and 2 wins in 13. Another pretty
fact:
Goals Scored For/ Against at home in the 13 games for
Arsenal; 33 and 18
Goals Scored For/Against Villa for Away games; 31/14.
As a fan of symmetry, I’ll take these numbers as seeing myself
in a slightly dirty mirror!
Rudimentary mathematics with poor assumptions tells me that
Arsenal wins 3-1. However, the last time Villa went through three games without
a loss was back in November, when they started the run against the very team
they play now. Coincidence??? YES!
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